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19 March 2026
Online version
Tracking inflation: US energy pressures and Global23 NIPI trends
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Inflationary pressures are back on the radar.
Just when we thought the macro landscape was clearing from the impact of recent tariffs, a new energy price shock has hit.
At first glance, this appears to be a typical shock. We have plenty of historical data to evaluate consumer price elasticity to oil prices across different regions. However, there are a few subtleties this time. This shock comes on the back of fundamentally different energy price dynamics, largely driven by diverging electricity prices. Prior to this oil price shock, energy price pressures were strong in the US and rather weak in many other regions.
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We also have a number of slow-burning global tensions in the background, with electronic products gradually being impacted by the surge in component prices that took place last year.
Timely, high-frequency data is essential in this volatile context. Our inflation datasets can provide critical help, offering several key advantages:
- Consistent historical data at a daily frequency since January 1, 2018.
- Language models that have been live, unrevised, and truly out-of-sample since 2020.
- Proven success in tracking inflation ups and downs through the COVID-19 and Ukraine war shocks.
- Flexible tools designed to help you easily access and analyze the underlying text data.
We recently published two pieces illustrating how to leverage our text-data tools to track these localized trends.
Register your interest here to get early access to a free monthly version of the Global23 aggregate release.
Enjoy the reading !
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Tracking electricity prices
US electricity prices have surged since 2025, driven by AI demand and an aging grid. We show how to track electricity news in real-time. Read more.
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Global23 NIPI
We test how short-term global inflation trends can be proxied by the Global23 NIPI aggregate. Read more
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Earlier newsletters
Newsletter: NewsBot App API Beta Launch, 26/8/2025.
Newsletter: AMS inflation data to monitor an economic shock like no other, 15/5/2025. Available here.
Blog Post: How can we track supply chain inflation in the tariff era?, 15/5/2025. Available here.
Blog Post: NIPI as a leading indicator for inflation expectations: new statistical evidence, 22/4/2025. Available here.
Newsletter: Global NIPI Release And Inflation Stress Update, 23/1/2025. Available here.
Blog Post: Expanding Our Daily Inflation Databases: 8 New Countries Added to the NIPI, 18/12/2024. Available here.
Newsletter & Blog Post: The NIPI as an inflation leading indicator: what statistical evidence?, 07/08/2024. Available here.
Newsletter: Post-COVID macro: uncertainty and volatility. Can alternative inflation data help?, 18/04/2024. Available here.
Blog Post: Investigating The Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics - Part I: Great Volatility?, 28/03/2024. Available here.
Newsletter: Hidden Gems From Our Language Models Database, 14/02/2024. Available here.
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