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15 May 2025
Online version
AMS inflation data to monitor an economic shock like no other
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The first stop in economic analysis is always to look for historical comparisons, consciously or not. The trouble is, this tariff shock is like no other.
It is certainly not some sort of commodity price shock. Uniquely, the current period is characterized by a spectacular desynchronization of inflation cycles among major economies:
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While the shock's transmission channels are very much uncertain, timely data becomes even more critical.
We present here two use cases for our unique inflation data, pertinent to current developments:
* the NIPI as an early indicator for inflation expectations
* a supply chain inflation measure derived from the News Volumes available in the NewsBot app
When trained for highly specialized applications and fed with the right data, Language Models have their part to play to help fill data voids.
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The NIPI as a leading indicator for inflation expectations
We find strong evidence that the NIPI can be considered a leading indicator for inflation expectations, with significant predictive power across multiple regions: Read more.
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How can we track supply chain inflation in the tariff era?
Introducing the Supply Chain Inflation metric, derived from the News Volumes in the NewsBot app: Read more.
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Earlier newsletters
Blog Post: NIPI as a leading indicator for inflation expectations: new statistical evidence , 22/4/2025. Available here.
Newsletter: Global NIPI Release And Inflation Stress Update, 23/01/2025. Available here.
Blog Post: Expanding Our Daily Inflation Databases: 8 New Countries Added to the NIPI, 18/12/2024. Available here.
Newsletter & Blog Post: The NIPI as an inflation leading indicator: what statistical evidence?, 07/08/2024. Available here.
Newsletter: Post-COVID macro: uncertainty and volatility. Can alternative inflation data help?, 18/04/2024. Available here.
Blog Post: Investigating The Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics - Part I: Great Volatility?, 28/03/2024. Available here.
Newsletter: Hidden Gems From Our Language Models Database, 14/02/2024. Available here.
Blog Post: Not Just One Way to Look At It: Metrics From Our Inflation Datasets, 14/02/2024. Available here.
Blog Post: Three Years After: How Does the NIPI Track The Eurozone Inflation Trend?, 13/02/2024. Available here.
Blog Post: Can Language Models Tackle Data Blind Spots? Introducing the "News Balance", Bespoke Inflation Series, 30/11/2023. Available here.
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