AMS Newsletter - 04 June 2026

Newsletter

04 June 2026

AMS H1 Recap: NIPI forecasting results, optimization, and NewsBot updates

It's been a busy first half at AMS — including new evidence that the NIPI consistently improves out-of-sample inflation forecasts. Highlights below.

1) Out of sample forecasting with the NIPI

The NIPI now has a long enough history to allow for proper statistical analysis.

In several recent blog posts, we ran out-of-sample inflation forecasts with the NIPI, on European inflation data or on OECD inflation. A consistent finding: simple models incorporating the NIPI can beat a benchmark AR(1) forecast.

2) NIPI optimization

The NIPI is the average balance of positive and negative inflation signals over 30 days. What happens when we change the 30-day window? And what is the ideal daily NIPI cut-off to forecast the next CPI release? This blog post answers these questions for the US, the UK, Euro area countries and Japan, using out-of-sample forecast grid searches with over 7000 parameter combinations per country.

All daily signals underlying the NIPI are available in our databases, so subscribers can tailor the index to their own noise/timeliness trade-off.

3) NewsBot feature updates: AI meets HI (Human Intelligence)

Two features have been added to the Inflation NewsBot: "Themes" (the goods or services items subject to expected price changes in the news) and "Spotlight news", a daily pick by our analysts of the most noteworthy items in the news flow.

4) Monthly Global NIPI Report

The report and data are available for free. Check the May release if you haven't; the next release is scheduled for 17 June 2026.

Subscribers continue to access the full daily series, country-level breakdowns, and real-time updates.

To get the Global Monthly report in your mailbox, register here.

Thank you for reading!

NIPI: Daily inflation measures derived from worldwide news

Inflation NewsBot: State-of-the-art NLP to identify relevant inflation news

Links

Website - https://alt.ms
Login (restricted) - https://alt.ms/login
NIPI App (restricted) - https://alt.ms/nipiapp

Reach out

Earlier newsletters

Blog Post: Tweaking the NIPI parameters to improve inflation forecast accuracy, 2/6/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Working with the API: NIPI and Entropy Use Cases, 28/4/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Can the NIPI Forecast Inflation in Europe? A Cross-Country Out-of-Sample Test, 20/4/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Forecasting Global Inflation Using the Global23 NIPI Aggregate, 2/4/2026. Available here.
Newsletter: Tracking inflation: US energy pressures and Global23 NIPI trends, 19/3/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Monitoring Global Inflation Using the Global23 NIPI Aggregate, 16/3/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Global23 NIPI Aggregate Methodological Note, 16/3/2026. Available here.
Blog Post: Tracking US Electricity Price News, 09/3/2026. Available here.
Newsletter: NewsBot App API Beta Launch, 26/8/2025.
Newsletter: AMS inflation data to monitor an economic shock like no other, 15/5/2025. Available here.

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